Video|1 May 2025

Turkey Steady, Dubai Soaring – What’s Driving the Divergence?

Scott Livermore
Scott Livermore
Chief Economist & Managing Director
Turkey Steady, Dubai Soaring – What’s Driving the Divergence?


S&P has affirmed Turkey’s BB- credit rating with a stable outlook, cautioning that recent political events could have lasting economic repercussions. Its macro assessment closely mirrors ours, forecasting GDP growth of 2.7% this year, just shy of our 2.8% projection—with risks tilted to the downside. That said, the central bank’s recent tightening measures appear prudent, reinforcing its commitment to bringing down inflation as a key policy priority.


The Arabian Travel Market 2025 launched this week. The event’s emphasis on enhanced connectivity and travel technology aligns with the objectives of D33. Meanwhile, Dubai’s tourism sector continues to show strength, with Q1 2025 figures revealing 5.3 million international visitors—a 3% year-on-year increase – and an occupancy rate of 82%. This supports our view that tourism remains a driving force behind Dubai’s robust economic performance.


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