Video|8 May 2025

Oil output up, prices down—what’s next?

Akanksha Samdani
Akanksha Samdani
Senior Economist, EMEA Macro Consulting
Oil output up, prices down—what’s next?


OPEC+ announced a higher-than-expected oil production hike for June, adding 411,000 b/d to the market. This marks a pivot from price defense to a period of higher output. As a result, Brent dipped to $59 earlier this week and has been hovering around $61–62/bbl. We expect prices to remain under pressure, ending the year at $66/bbl, as global demand stays weak and production continues to rise through the year.


Regional PMIs paint a mixed picture, but overall growth momentum continues to hold. Saudi Arabia and the UAE saw strong hiring to meet demand, fuelling wage pressures. Kuwait posted one of the fastest output gains on record, but hiring lagged, driving up backlogs. Qatar’s expansion lost steam amid softer orders, while Egypt slipped deeper into contraction. Despite these mixed signals, we expect GCC non-oil growth to remain firm at 4.1% this year.


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