Forecasting the future workforce needs of the built environment

Background: Australia’s built environment sector is facing a growing imbalance between workforce demand and supply.

Major national objectives such as addressing housing shortages, advancing climate transitions, and delivering public infrastructure require a significant ramp-up in workforce capacity. Yet, demographic shifts, training system limitations, and skills mismatches are constraining the availability of labour. These challenges risk slowing or derailing critical construction and infrastructure ambitions unless a clear, strategic response is implemented.

The Challenge: How can Australia close the workforce gap to meet its built environment ambitions?

With an ageing population and rising demand for services, Australia’s built environment sector needs approximately 2.5 million workers by 2035. Under current trajectories, the workforce will fall short by over 300,000 people a gap peaking at 17% in 2030. This challenge is compounded by underutilised training pathways, barriers to participation, and the need for rapid upskilling in response to evolving technologies and regulations.

Using a scenario-based labour projection framework, Oxford Economics delivered:

• Workforce projections to 2035 are grounded in government policy, sector ambitions, and economic megatrends.
• Modelling of labour supply based on demographic and training participation assumptions.
• Identification of workforce shortfalls and analysis of the timing and size of labour market adjustments.
• Sector-wide strategy inputs, including macroeconomic context, demand modelling, and policy scenario testing.

These insights helped BuildSkills Australia and stakeholders anticipate imbalances and prioritise policy responses to attract, retain, and develop talent across the built environment workforce.