Global Scenarios Service – Tariff Uncertainty

The latest scenarios quantify key risks to the global economy. These relate primarily to trade protectionism and other geopolitical tensions, structural weakness in the Chinese economy, the stance of monetary and fiscal policy, and financial market conditions.

Latest risk scenarios:

• Worst-case trade war. The US hikes tariffs further, triggering greater retaliation from trading partners and significant supply-chain disruption.
• Market Correction. Investor concerns over US policy credibility lead to tighter financial conditions, as higher yields push up lending rates and weigh on stock markets.
• Best-case trade war. Growth recovers globally as US tariffs are negotiated down, retaliatory tariffs are lowered, and markets are buoyed by fading trade tensions.
• Government-led upturn. The global economy strengthens amid stimulus and structural reform in China and greater defence spending in the EU and increased OPEC production.

To learn how these scenarios impact key global economic indicators, download the executive summary.