Minimal Impact on Industry from Trump Travel Bans
The new wave of travel bans only impacts 1% of the total US overseas market.
On June 4, US President Donald Trump signed a travel ban proclamation fully restricting the entry of nationals from 12 countries, while limiting the entry of nationals from seven others.
The newly announced travel ban is broader than the restrictions implemented during the first Trump administration; however, reduced travel from the affected countries is expected to have a minimal impact on overall inbound arrivals. Travelers from the twelve banned nations accounted for just 0.3% of total overseas arrivals in 2024. When including the seven countries with limited entry, this total rises to only 1.0%.
While the direct effects of these restrictions will be minimal, the latest travel ban could further negatively impact inbound travel by increasing negative sentiment toward the US globally.
Travel ban policies heighten the downside risk to our near-term forecast for US arrivals, through increased traveler concerns and sentiment effects. Still, we maintain our outlook for a pronounced decline in total arrivals in 2025, approaching 10%.
