US Inbound Travel Arrivals: 2025 Halfway Mark

Recent data releases through June confirm our forecast of an 8.2% decline in international overnight arrivals to the US for 2025, as sentiment headwinds persist.

• The fallout from Canada has been steepest, as land crossings and air arrivals contracted 28.0% and 13.3% year-to-date (YTD), respectively.
  • The pullback in Canadian travel is expected to most negatively impact cities such as Seattle (-26.9% fall in overnight international visitors expected in 2025), Portland (-18.3%), and Detroit (-17.3%).
• Overseas arrivals fell 3.4% in June compared to a year ago, bringing the YTD decline to 1.2%. Among key markets, visitors from Ecuador, South Korea, Germany, and France have fallen the most. Strength in Argentina, Italy, and some Asian countries is partly offsetting the declines.
• The contraction in international arrivals is most acute in cities highly dependent on Canadian travel, particularly those closer to the northern border. For 2025, we forecast the steepest year-over-year declines will occur in Seattle, Portland, and Detroit.