Mapping the uncertain demographic future
Shifts in demographics represent a key megatrend influencing long-term economic performance.
Current trends in global populations are pushing us into new territory, with fertility falling below replacement levels and societies ageing more rapidly than ever before.
Weaker demographics affect the economy primarily through a declining labour supply. This happens through three main channels:
- Fewer young workers slow innovation
- Ageing populations reduce demand
- Smaller workforces increase the strain on welfare systems.
Our baseline forecast projects that the global population will reach 10.2 billion by 2060. However, some evidence suggests that demographic decline is happening faster than expected.
In a Secular Stagnation scenario, the global population falls over a billion below our baseline, to 9.1 billion by 2060. Conversely, our Tech Revolution scenario includes the UN’s high fertility projection, resulting in a global population of 11.4 billion by 2060 – over a billion higher than baseline.
Regional differences will create winners and losers. Ageing societies are facing stronger fiscal pressures and tough decisions on their policy responses. Meanwhile, younger regions such as sub-Saharan Africa will account for half of all new entrants into the global labour force by 2030, offering long-term growth potential if supported by strong institutions.
Download the full report to discover how shifting demographics will reshape the global economy.
