Understanding Australia’s Goods Trade Dynamics in 2025
Export gains and softer imports steadied Australia’s goods trade in June, but global price pressures will cap future growth.
Australia’s goods trade balance bounced back in June, buoyed by an increase in exports and a fall in import values. These movements more than offset last month’s sharp fall in the goods balance, although the goods trade surplus did narrow a little in Q2.
Weaker global demand will keep downward pressure on export values through 2025. That weakness will be driven more by export prices than volumes. Indeed, volumes look to have ticked up in Q2. The modest outlook for domestic demand, coupled with lingering uncertainty, will restrain growth in imports; we expect the goods trade balance will remain around its current level over the next year.
