Bifurcated – How the US economy is splitting

Assessing the economy solely through aggregate statistics obscures its strengths, weaknesses, and vulnerabilities due to the splitting expansion and shifts in fiscal and trade policies. This report marks the first in a series of Research Briefings dissecting the bifurcated US economy.

What you will learn:

• High-income consumers are doing well while lower-income households are struggling. Trade and fiscal policy will reinforce the bifurcated consumer.
• As large businesses can weather tariffs better, they outperform small ones, reinforcing recent labor market weakness.
• It’s a good labor market for those with a job, but a challenging one for those who are unemployed or not in the labor force but want a job. The bifurcated labor market can change quickly if layoffs increase, a significant risk to the forecast.