Watchlist 2026: Sino-Africa tensions and stolen elections
Our Watchlist 2026 examines rising Sino–African trade tensions, growing electoral risks, and intensifying debt and currency pressures across the continent.
We assess how Africa’s industrialisation drive is set to clash with China’s push to secure new export markets, why devaluations are likely in Mozambique and Malawi, and why Senegal may be heading toward debt restructuring.
On the political front, we explore why South Africa’s ANC is on track for its worst local election result, why Uganda’s Bobi Wine may win the popular vote without taking power, and why Tunisia faces heightened leadership risk in 2026.
What you will learn:
- China is doubling down on its export-driven GDP growth strategy, and the reorientation of global trade means Chinese exports to Africa are set to surge. African industries will struggle to cope with more competition, and we can expect both punitive (tariffs, quotas) and constructive (investment incentives, greater African economic integration) reactions.
- Senegal’s fiscal finances are in disarray, and we think the government’s ambitious consolidation plan won’t manage to avoid debt restructuring. The IMF needs to be convinced that Senegal’s risk of debt distress is on track to be ‘moderate’ without restructuring, but even under the rosiest of assumptions, this will not be the case.
- South Africans will go to the polls in 2026 for local government elections. The key questions will be how much further support for the African National Congress will decline, and whether the main opposition, the Democratic Alliance, can capitalise on these losses.
You can also watch our Watchlist 2026 webinar on demand, where our economists unpack these risks and what they mean for Africa in the year ahead.
