AI vs Tariffs: The forces reshaping global trade in 2026

The past 12 months have been defined by unexpected resilience amid intense trade turmoil. But what will the second year of the US’s protectionist pivot look like? And how will the rest of the world respond?

We expect trade resilience to continue through 2026, but growth will be capped as trade is caught in a tug-of-war between tariffs and AI, where AI-driven investment keeps high-tech manufacturing buoyant.

Join Oxford Economics’ Head of Global Trade, Harry Murphy Cruise, to unpack the 2026 trade outlook. The webinar will explore:

• Trade outlook across key countries, regions, and industries
• Current and emerging trends shaping trade flows
• AI-driven investment and what it means for high-tech manufacturing, semiconductors, and Asia’s trade gains
• Tariff policy deep dive and our expectations for what lies ahead

This webinar is being held on our new platform, ON24. If you do not receive your confirmation email, please check your junk and spam folders.

Speakers

Harry Murphy Cruise

Harry Murphy Cruise is the Head of Economic Research and Global Trade at Oxford Economics Australia. He leads the Australian Macroeconomic Service and global trade initiatives, including TradePrism. Harry frequently provides insights to major media outlets, including CNBC, BBC, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal. His research primarily focuses on global trade and investment flows, with particular interest in the challenges and opportunities of economic decoupling.

Harry holds a master’s degree in international and development economics from the Australian National University and a bachelor’s degree in arts and commerce from Monash University. He is a PhD candidate at ANU, exploring the role of China’s diverse households and firms in the country’s economic transition.

Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Harry was the Head of China and Australia Economics at Moody’s Analytics. He was previously responsible for Australian state and territory analysis at Deloitte Access Economics.

Head of Economic Research and Global Trade