Webinar

The US consumer in 2026 – key themes and trends

29 January 2026 – 10.00am EST (New York)

online

We expect an above-consensus increase in US consumer spending growth next year, but the state of the consumer is increasingly bifurcated.

Spending is increasingly driven by older, wealthier households, while a jobless expansion is weighing particularly heavily on younger consumers, shifting the key drivers, risks, and opportunities around the US consumer. We will also explore how wealth transfers from the ageing baby boomer generation have the potential to reshape the consumer in the years ahead.

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Speakers

Michael Pearce

Michael Pearce is Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics, based in New York. He leads US macroeconomic research and forecasting, and his team is ranked among Bloomberg’s top forecasters for major US economic indicators. Before joining Oxford Economics, Michael was a senior economist on the US team at Capital Economics and worked at HM Treasury in the UK. He holds degrees in Economic History from the London School of Economics and in Economics from University College London, and has lived and worked in the UK and Switzerland.

Chief US Economist

Barbara Byrne Denham

As a Lead economist at Oxford Economics, Barbara brings a seasoned approach to the study of US cities. She works in Oxford Economics’ division of Cities and Regions analysis where she leads in writing reports on US metros. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, she worked six years for Moody’s Analytics REIS where she did similar work and wrote a number of white papers covering metro-level analyses including the Impact of the Tax and Jobs Act on Commercial Real Estate; Amazon HQ2, a Scoring Analysis; and the Economics of College Towns. Barbara’s work is frequently cited by the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Crains New York Business and numerous other publications.

Prior to working at Moody’s, Barbara worked more than 20 years at various commercial real estate firms including Jones Lang LaSalle and Eastern Consolidated where she focused on writing market reports and white papers.

Barbara holds a bachelor’s in business administration from the University of Notre Dame and is a Ph. D. candidate in Economics from New York University.

Lead Economist, Cities & Regions

Alex Mackle

Alex Mackle is a Corporate Advisory Engagement Lead in the US Macro Consulting team based in New York. Alex focuses on scenarios and stress testing, as well as CECL/IFRS9 scenarios. He also frequently gives training sessions on the Global Economic Model, focusing on scenarios and stress testing capabilities.

Prior to joining the US Macro Consulting team in 2017, Alex worked in the Scenarios team in London, contributing to the Global Scenario Service and various stress testing exercises. He has also worked on several modelling projects, including a macro model for the Central Bank of Oman.

Corporate Advisory Engagement Lead