After Maduro, what’s next for the Venezuela economy?

A huge range of uncertainty has opened up in the wake of the US removal of Nicolás Maduro as Venezuela’s president. At the time of writing, the US has allowed the rest of the Venezuelan government to remain in place, with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez now acting as President. President Trump has pledged further action should Rodríguez not act in the US’s interests.

To help navigate near-term and longer-term uncertainties, we map out upside and downside possibilities under four key dimensions and their economic implications. These straddle hydrocarbons, internal security, a democratic transition and political stability, and rebuilding the state.

What you will learn:

• Even under our strong upside scenarios for oil and migrant return, Venezuela’s GDP returns to just 50% below the 2013 peak in ten years.
• A likely scenario is a modest recovery within two years as a US-backed Chavista government opens up hydrocarbon investment and maintains domestic security.
• A broader recovery would require vast improvements across institutions, education, and infrastructure, and a stable security and political environment.