Canada industrial real estate outlook 2026: Capital returns improve

Canada’s industrial real estate sector is expected to show stronger growth in 2026, with capital returns revised higher as supply pressures ease and logistics activity stabilises. However, persistent trade frictions and higher cross-border costs continue to shape the medium-term outlook.

In this Oxford Economics research briefing, we share our latest baseline forecasts for Canada industrial real estate market, and assess how rising USMCA compliance, a tapering construction pipeline, and trends in transportation and warehousing GVA and logistics employment are influencing industrial markets across major Canadian metros.

Complete the form to access the full analysis and understand where opportunities lie in this evolving environment.

What you will learn from this report:

• Why industrial capital returns are stronger in 2026 following our upward revision, and how part of the recovery has been pulled forward from 2027.
• How persistent trade frictions and higher cross-border costs will exert a small but ongoing drag on long-run appreciation.
• Which Canadian industrial markets are most resilient, with Prairie and energy-linked metros outperforming larger gateway cities.
• How a slowing construction pipeline is helping to rebalance supply and demand.
• How an escalated trade war scenario could influence market performance, based on our scenario analysis.