Uganda: Museveni vs Kyagulanyi

Ugandans head to the polls on Thursday, January 15, for presidential and legislative elections.

Campaign activities ended at 18:00 on Tuesday, January 13. Our baseline scenario points to another victory for incumbent President Yoweri Museveni, although we expect Robert ‘Bobi Wine’ Kyagulanyi to mount a credible challenge. This research note unpacks how the economy performed under Museveni so far and outlines what to expect in his next term.

Chart 1: Uganda’s economic growth under Museveni has outpaced the region, a trend we expect to continue beyond 2026