US International Inbound: Lessons from 2025, Outlook for 2026

International overnight visits to the US fell 5.7% in 2025, validating our early downside scenarios (-5.1%) tied to sentiment and policy headwinds. Beneath the headline decline, the inbound mix shifted meaningfully—reshaping demand patterns and hotel performance across key markets.

Canada drove the biggest declines. Visits from Canada dropped an estimated 25.7% as diplomatic tensions and border policies weighed on travel demand. In contrast, arrivals from Mexico exceeded expectations, rising an estimated 8.6%. For the first time in more than 25 years (outside pandemic years), Mexico became the largest source of international visitors to the US, surpassing Canada.

Overseas visitation (excluding Canada and Mexico) declined 2.5% in 2025. More than half of the decline came from Western Europe, though performance varied by country.

Looking ahead, we forecast 3.9% growth in international inbound travel and 0.4% growth in international inbound and hotel demand this year. The 2026 FIFA World Cup and strong global travel demand—with worldwide arrivals expected to grow 8.0%—should support growth. However, ongoing policy uncertainty and enforcement actions from the Trump administration are likely to limit gains, leaving the US at risk of underperforming other international destination markets again this year.