AI Geopolitics 2030

The new power distribution through strategic AI sovereignty

The first KPMG Strategic AI Capability Index (SACI) provides a comparative, evidence-based assessment of how the world’s leading regions in the race for AI leadership (the United States, Europe, and China) are positioned to develop, scale, and govern artificial intelligence. The analysis is complemented by a detailed view of Europe’s internal sub-regions.

Drawing on validated third-party data and primary insights from a bespoke survey of senior corporate leaders, AI-native firms, and ecosystem actors closest to AI adoption and deployment, the Index integrates historical and current quantitative benchmarks with forward-looking perspectives from decision-makers to offer a clear view of both realized AI progress and future capability.

It brings together measures of AI outcomes (such as investment levels and productivity gains), the underlying capabilities required to enable AI at scale (including data availability, compute, cloud infrastructure, and AI services), as well as the business and strategic conditions that shape diffusion and impact (such as access to capital, R&D capacity, innovation ecosystems, and governance readiness).

By moving the discussion on AI leadership from abstraction to measurement, the SACI highlights relative strengths, structural gaps, and strategic trade-offs across regions. It provides a robust analytical foundation to support informed decision-making by business leaders, investors, and policymakers as global AI capabilities and power dynamics continue to evolve.

Tags:

AI Leadership KPMG AI Power Index

The experts behind the research

Elliot Heaton

Senior Economist, Economic Footprint & Sustainability

Elliot Heaton

Senior Economist, Economic Footprint & Sustainability

Elliot Heaton first joined Oxford Economics in 2020 as a research assistant before returning in 2022 as an economist after completing his degree in BSc Economics. He has a strong analytical background, with proficiency in programming languages and experience working with complex data.

Since re-joining Oxford Economics, he has completed projects for a UK industry body, a private defence company, and social media companies to help them quantify the economic impact of their operations in the UK and EU.
John Reiners

Managing Editor, EMEA, Thought Leadership, Oxford Economics

John Reiners

Managing Editor, EMEA, Thought Leadership, Oxford Economics

John oversees Thought Leadership projects with EMEA-based clients. He works across business sectors and disciplines, but specialises in issues relating to strategy and business operations, such as sustainability, digital transformation, employment and skills, finance, and performance management. He has directed the Thought Leadership contribution on some of Oxford Economics’ largest and most complex research programmes, for global consultancies and corporates, including Accenture, the Adecco Group, Cognizant, EY, Fujitsu and YouTube. Often this is in collaboration with his economist colleagues to blend qualitative and quantitative analysis, and to explore the impact of corporate actions at a business, industry and economy level.

John joined Oxford Economics in 2014, after 25 years as a Financial Controller, financial management consultant and, most recently, a thought leadership expert for IBM’s Institute for Business Value, focused on global public sector issues. John then worked on the independent Digital Government Review as input to the UK General Election. He is an Economics graduate from Sussex University and a Chartered Management Accountant (ACMA).
Alice Pickthall

Senior Research Manager, Thought Leadership
Maximilian Douglas Carl Vickers

Research Manager

Maximilian Douglas Carl Vickers

Research Manager

Max is based in the London office and supports the Thought Leadership team across business sectors and disciplines. Max graduated from the University of Warwick with a BA in Politics, International Studies and Quantitative Methods and an MSc in Behavioural and Data Science.
Anubhav Mohanty

Director, Economic Impact

Anubhav Mohanty

Director, Economic Impact

Anubhav Mohanty is a Director in the Economic Impact Consulting team. He has led projects with clients across a range of industries helping them understand how economic trends and Government policy can affect their markets. Experience in the private sector includes work for Snapchat, Meta, Amazon, Visa, Accenture, and Bain, among others.

He has also worked with Governments helping them understand how policy changes can affect the wider economy. Experience in the public sector includes work for the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), the UK Home Office, HMRC, and the Department for Transport.

Anubhav joined Oxford Economics in January 2018 with more than 7 years of experience in econometric analysis. Previously, Anubhav worked as an economist with Compass Lexecon and at PwC.

Anubhav has an MSc in Economics (Distinction) from the London School of Economics (LSE) where he also taught economics as a graduate teaching assistant.