At a Glance: Global Trade

1. Global trade growth will weaken this year.
Global trade held up surprisingly well in 2025, boosted by pre-tariff stockpiling and strong AI demand. Those stockpiles are now being drawn down, and while AI demand will remain a tailwind, growth won’t be as buoyant as last year. We expect trade volumes to rise 1.7% this year before edging up to 2.2% in 2027 – both lagging global GDP growth.

2. China could face more barriers.
Despite the recent trade truce with the US, China remains vulnerable to tariffs. China’s export prices have fallen substantially in recent years, and we expect further falls through to 2027. Those cheaper goods are undercutting manufacturers elsewhere, with governments starting to step in to protect their domestic industries. EVs have been most in the firing line so far, but more sectors could soon feel the heat.

3. AI could provide another upside surprise.
AI demand went gangbusters last year, boosting demand for everything from semiconductors to metals and chemicals. The AI boom isn’t over, but we do expect slightly weaker growth through this year. But what if we’re wrong? We’ve run a scenario exploring a world where firms double down on AI investment. That scenario would see the global economy expand by 3.1% in 2026, 0.3 ppts above baseline, and world trade volumes rising 2.6%.