India-UAE Air Travel Demand Could Go Unmet

This study finds that current air capacity between India and the United Arab Emirates is failing to keep pace with rising travel demand, potentially reducing the economic benefits that stronger air connectivity can support.

Under existing capacity levels, up to 27% of forecast India–UAE passenger demand could go unserved by 2035. This would represent a cumulative shortfall of about 54.5 million journeys, including 13.2 million on the Abu Dhabi–India corridor alone.

The report highlights strong structural growth in India’s aviation market. Their travelling class has grown from 24% of the population in 2010 to 40% in 2024, or nearly 300 million people. As a result, air travel demand is expected to grow by 7.2% per year through 2035, adding nearly 22 million passenger journeys annually.

India–UAE air travel demand is growing rapidly, underpinned by rising incomes, expanding international trade, and increasing outbound and inbound tourism.
_{– Matthew Dass, Director of Consulting}

The study also quantifies the economic impact of the UAE–India air corridor. With current capacity constraints, GDP contributions is expected to grow at a 3% CAGR over the next five years; easing constraints could lift growth to 5.5%–7%. Doubling Abu Dhabi–India seat capacity alone could generate an additional $7.2 billion in GDP over five years and support more than 170,000 jobs per year.

Beyond immediate impacts, improved connectivity could contribute to productivity gains of up to $9 billion annually by 2035, support trade and investment, and put downward pressure on fares through increased capacity and competition.

_{*The study was commissioned by Etihad Airways and conducted by Tourism Economics.}