US AI Tracker: The GDP dividend; a jobs dilemma

The full transformative effects of AI in the long run are still up for debate, but the technology is starting to show up in the economic data. In the first of our regular series on AI, we explore the technology’s impact on the economy in real time, as we gauge the risks from this burgeoning sector to our forecast.

What you will learn in this report:

• AI spending boosted US GDP by 0.4ppts in 2025 through various channels, according to our analysis, and we expect it to add a similar amount this year. This would translate into an increase of $200bn in nominal AI spending.
• Adoption rates are a key indicator of how quickly AI is reshaping the economy. The still-wide gap between planned and actual AI use suggests adoption, while still low, is proceeding briskly.
• Unemployment is rising more quickly in AI-exposed occupations, especially among younger workers. However, most of that reflects a rising supply of workers. Permanent layoffs are rising, with some of the increase tied to federal funding cuts, but AI-driven layoffs are playing a small role.