Global Scenario Service: War Disruption

The global economic outlook has deteriorated markedly in the last quarter.

As a result, we have revised down our baseline forecast for world GDP, particularly in the very near term.

This reflects

• The escalation of formal and informal sanctions against Russia and upside inflation surprises

• Ongoing lockdowns and restrictions in China, and the continuing impact on global supply chains

The impact of higher inflation on monetary policy and financial markets is a prominent risk in our Global Risk Survey. But war is now the key concern.

Find out more by downloading the latest Global Scenarios Service executive summary.