Rapid policy tightening fuels businesses’ recession fears
The July Global Risk Survey was conducted at a time when central banks in major economies were sharply raising policy rates. The potential fall-out for the global economy is prominent in our results, with 1-in-4 respondents now citing rapid policy tightening as the top near-term global economic risk.
What you will learn:
- Businesses are increasingly concerned about the impact of rapid central bank policy tightening on global growth, based on our latest survey of risk perceptions. Respondents see almost a 60% chance of the eurozone following the US into technical recession in the next 12 months.
- Tighter policy already appears to beaffecting businesses’ inflation expectations. The perceived chance of very high (6%+) world inflation next year has halved since our previous survey.
- Despite the sharp rise in inflation over the past year, the mean expectation for world inflation in the medium term has risen only marginally. But businesses see material upside risks, with a 1-in-5 chance of inflation remaining above 4% over the medium term.
Tags:
Related posts
Post
US-China relations improve, yet industrial recession remains likely
For the first time this year, our global industrial production outlook for 2025 has been upgraded. However, we still anticipate an industrial recession in Q2 and Q3.
Find Out More
Post
Oxford Economics Leads 2025 Analyst Forecast Awards
We are honoured to receive a total of 103 awards in this year’s FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards. Our team of over 400 economists and analysts demonstrated exceptional forecasting precision in both advanced and emerging economies, including the UK, Italy, Egypt, Brazil, Vietnam and more.
Find Out More
Post
Impacts of the proposed Los Angeles fast food ordinance
Save Local Restaurants commissioned Oxford Economics to calculate high-level cost estimates relating to a proposed city ordinance that would impose new requirements on quick-service restaurant operators in Los Angeles.
Find Out More