Modest growth in 2023 for six Canadian metros despite winter recession

While nearly every metro in Canada will experience at least a minor recession between Q4 2022 and Q3 2023, on an annual basis, six mostly smaller metros will escape a GDP contraction in 2023 as a whole: Lethbridge, St. John’s, Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary, and Barrie.

What you will learn:

• Apart from Barrie, all the metros that will avoid contractions in 2023 have a significant primary & utilities sector, which will be the main driver of their growth. Barrie’s growth will come from a strong construction sector, resulting from the metro’s growth as a suburb to Toronto.
• In contrast, Canada’s three largest metros—Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver—will contract in 2023 in part due to the poor performance of their large finance, insurance & real estate sectors.
• Inflation remains high across Canada, and in some metros has increased in the past few months, worsening the economic outlook for those cities. Although western metros are experiencing the highest rates of inflation, many of them, such as Calgary, have above-average levels of income per person and hence accumulated savings and wealth, helping them to cope with rising prices.