Canada: The impact of climate scenarios on provinces and metros

The impact of policies to address climate change in Canada cannot be discussed only in national terms; there will be variations by province and metro.

What you will learn:

• Our latest analysis adds a local dimension to our existing range of national-level climate scenarios which link the economy, the energy system, and the environment.
• The provinces and metros most negatively impacted in these transition scenarios will be those with greater dependency on oil, natural gas and coal mining and extraction, and sectors that are carbon-intensive in their production or operational processes, such as manufacturing and transportation services.
• In our Net Zero scenario, extraction-dependent provinces and metros (particularly Alberta and its metros) face the largest reduction in economic activity compared to our baseline forecasts.
• To illustrate the costs of climate inaction, we have modelled an additional scenario (Climate Catastrophe) in which governments across the globe fail to meet their pledges to transition to net zero. As a result, Canada suffers more frequent and extreme climatic events.