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Latest Reports

Explore our latest reports to navigate the complexities of today’s economic landscape and gain a thorough understanding of how the macrocycle influences investment returns.

US AI Tracker: The GDP dividend; a jobs dilemma

AI spending boosted US GDP by 0.4ppts in 2025 and we expect it to add a similar amount this year.

The Supreme Court ruling sends US tariff policy back to the drawing board

The Supreme court ruling on tariffs lowers the effective tariff rate down sharply. In this report, we discuss its implications.

Why neutral rate estimates suggest BoJ hikes to 1.5%

We’ve raised our terminal rate assumption for the Bank of Japan to 1.5% from 1% in February. This reflects changes in our estimate for Japan’s neutral interest rate, r* – the equilibrium level at which the policy rate should eventually settle – resulting from recent revisions to GDP, a new fiscal policy outlook, and rising inflation expectations.

A new accord, a new curve – Warsh’s blueprint for the US Fed

While Kevin Warsh, the Trump administration’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair, was a more hawkish member of the Federal Open Market Committee during his term as Fed governor, his recent views have shifted in favor of rate cuts while remaining a consistent proponent of reducing the Fed’s balance sheet. He’s called for a new Treasury-Fed accord, outlining an agreement for a smaller balance sheet.

Can Fed’s new chair Warsh pull off a Greenspan?

While we mostly agree with Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s argument that the economy is in a supply-side expansion akin to the new economy period under former Chair Alan Greenspan, we think the implications for monetary policy are different today.

US chip exports unlikely to derail China’s local production push

The US is loosening restrictions on advanced chip exports to China, hoping to slow its manufacturing progress, but China’s drive for self-sufficiency is accelerating — will this policy shift actually work?

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Understand and Anticipate Interest Rate Changes with Trusted Oxford Economics Research

Over the past 12 months, the pace of disinflation has proceeded in line with our forecast and the outlook for monetary policy and yields has played out broadly in line with our expectations.

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