US office sector slows job growth in most metros

All major US metros are poised to see positive medium-term job growth, but a few are already feeling the effects of recessionary forces. Some have shown job declines in office-based sectors in the first half of 2023, and most will do so in the second half before recovering in 2024 to 2027.

What you will learn:

• The office sector in particular—an aggregate of information, finance, real estate, and professional and other business services—will see broader declines than other sectors in the second half of 2023 before growing steadily in the latter half of 2024 through 2027.
• The information sector has and will continue to bear the brunt of job losses in 2023. Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Washington, Boston, and Miami have incurred some of the heaviest losses thus far in 2023.
• The largest metros have shown little change in finance jobs to date despite the collapse of SVB, First Republic, and Signature banks. However, we forecast that most metros will do so through Q1 2024 before recovering in late 2024 through 2027.
• Metros leading five-year growth include Austin, Orlando, Las Vegas, Dallas, and Charlotte. Those trailing include many in the Midwest and some in the Northeast.