Research Briefing | Jun 29, 2021

UK | MPC predicts larger but still brief inflation burst

MPC predicts larger but still brief inflation burst

The MPC now thinks CPI inflation could exceed 3% this year, with the risk of an even bigger overshoot of the BoE’s 2% target. However, the majority on the committee maintained the view that higher inflation will be transitory.

What you will learn:

  • In his final meeting, Andrew Haldane voted again to scale QE back by £50bn.
  • Other opinions on how to judge whether inflationary pressures were temporary or persistent differed. But while the MPC will likely cut the pace of QE further in August, the chances of a more abrupt move in policy are low.
  • The outcome of June’s MPC meeting repeated that of the previous month. 
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

US bill next to calculator which says recession

Post

US-China relations improve, yet industrial recession remains likely

For the first time this year, our global industrial production outlook for 2025 has been upgraded. However, we still anticipate an industrial recession in Q2 and Q3.

Find Out More
Industry is performing worse than the broader economy globally

Post

Positive tariff news does little to dispel overall uncertainty

We've nudged up our world GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 0.1ppt to 2.4%, in part to reflect the temporary but substantial reduction in tariffs between the US and China.

Find Out More