Australia | Alternate recovery paths shaped by key risks

Vaccine programs across the world are well underway and should enable  a sustained and meaningful easing of restrictions in mid-2021. But as we have seen in Australia, vaccine rollouts have not been immune to supply disruptions and efficacy concerns, which are threatening to keep international borders restricted for longer. Using our Global Economic Model, we consider three alternate recovery scenarios.

What you will learn:

• The path beyond COVID-19 is now largely dependent on the rollout and effectiveness of national vaccine programs. Logistical hurdles remain and high levels of transmission in some countries could develop new variants.
• Long term bond yields have already risen this year in response to inflation expectations.
• Inflation risks higher than usual due to large fiscal responses and climbing commodity prices.