MENA | Iran aims to wrap up JCPOA return before elections

Attempts to salvage the JCPOA have intensified as discussions through European intermediaries kicked off in Vienna on 6 April. Negotiators are already drafting proposals for the US and Iran to return to compliance. With presidential elections set to take place on 18 June and a sanctioned hardliner increasingly likely to win, we expect an agreement to be reached before then. However, failure to strike a deal before the elections may undo any diplomatic breakthrough achieved.

What you will learn:

• Using the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model (GEM), we simulate the potential impact under two scenarios: a full return to the JCPOA by end-Q2 2021 and a lighter scenario envisaging reinstatement of some export waivers under an interim deal prior to an expected hardliner victory.
• We estimate a return to the JCPOA could boost Iran’s GDP growth in 2021 to 6%, up 3.4pp from our baseline and surpassing pre-sanction levels by 2023.
• Despite fears after an attack on an Iranian nuclear facility last week, prompting Iran to enrich uranium levels to 60%, significant progress has been made in a bid to revive the JCPOA following proximity discussions in Vienna on 6 April.