US supply chain stress continues to ease

All the components of our supply chain stress tracker were steady or signaled an improvement in conditions in July. The transportation and activity components are nearly back to their pre-pandemic levels and aren’t showing signs of bottoming out. Prices and labor were the most stubborn, but they will lose momentum as the economy falls into a mild recession later this year.

What you will learn:

• Lingering supply chain constraints are expected to loosen by the end of this year. We believe elevated interest rates, tight monetary policy, and restrictive credit standards in H2 2023 will fix lingering imbalances in the economy.
• Supply chains are in a much healthier position today, so we have decided to suspend this monthly publication. We will monitor developments and intermittently update the index.