Global Scenarios Service: Taiwan Tensions

Global economic prospects remain relatively subdued. The peak impact of past policy tightening has yet to be fully felt in the advanced economies and China is expected to underperform relative to consensus.

Risks to global growth appear to lie to the downside. The peak impact of past tightening and higher-for-longer policy rates could prove more substantial than expected. This could exacerbate existing banking system risks.

Our latest baseline forecast is for world GDP growth of 2.0% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. This is a weaker outlook than anticipated in May.

This quarter’s scenarios quantify key risks to the global economy. These relate primarily to geopolitical tensions, the fall-out from monetary policy tightening, and the degree of consumer caution.

To find out more, fill in the form to download the executive summary of this quarter’s Global Scenarios report.