Research Briefing | Jan 26, 2022

Why Japan’s supplementary budget flatters to deceive

Why the supplementary budget flatters to deceive - iPad

Japan’s parliament has approved the latest supplementary budget, which includes the second-largest expenditure package in its history. But while the size of the budget has skyrocketed to cope with the effects of the pandemic, it’s not only the budget size that is key when assessing its impact on the economy.

What you will learn:

  • Although the budget has expanded rapidly, slow deployment of the additional funding has increasingly become a drawback. Data for fiscal 2020 reveals that of the ¥176 trillion annual budget, ¥31 trillion was unspent. 
  • A closer look at specific measures in the supplementary budget also shows that any additional short-term boost to the economy will be limited.
  • Half of the budget is compensation and support for damaged firms and households through cash benefits and grants. And while long-term growth measures are a sizeable chunk of the budget, their impact will only be felt over the long term.
Tags: Asian EconomyBudgetFiscal policyJapan
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Takaichi’s big win doesn’t affect the fiscal outlook for Japan

Takaichi’s big win doesn’t affect the fiscal outlook for Japan

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) landslide election victory on Sunday doesn't change our expectation of a primary fiscal deficit of 2%-3% of GDP in FY2026-FY2028 – we still see the deficit only starting to decline from FY2029. We also keep our view that the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield will be at 2.3% at end-2026 and 2.5% at end-2027 and beyond.
US and Chinese strength won’t boost all other economies

US and Chinese strength won’t boost all other economies

Upward revisions to US and Chinese GDP growth in Q4 meant that the previously anticipated soft end to 2025 failed to materialise.