US Recovery Tracker slips as Covid surges and holidays near

The US Recovery Tracker recorded its second straight loss in the week ended Dec. 24, down 0.3ppts to 97.7. Typical weakness ahead of the holiday season partly explains the lower reading, with Covid-19 sharing in the blame. However, stronger demand, fairly stable mobility, and looser financial conditions mean that the recovery hasn’t gotten off track.

Nearly all of our State Recovery Trackers recorded lower readings in the latest week. The tracker would normally bounce back after this seasonal weakness, but the worrying health situation could squash the rebound. Current case rates have already vastly exceeded past infection waves, public officials are reimposing containment measures, and consumers and businesses are more cautious. 

What you will learn:

• Which regions lost the most ground, and which declined the least
• The current infection wave won’t derail the recovery, but we expect it to slow GDP growth to roughly 2.5% annualized in Q1.
• Assuming health conditions improve, we foresee solid real GDP growth of around 4% in 2022.