Australia | A Re-Tail of Three Cities

The outlook for retail demand is mixed. As lockdowns ease, relaxed trading
restrictions will drive sales. However, this will also facilitate a substitution in
consumption from goods into services, providing a headwind to retail sales.

Retail sales have fallen sharply in locked down regions over the past three
months; turnover has declined steadily for three months in NSW, fallen
precipitously in the ACT in August, while worse is likely still to come in Victoria

What you will learn:

• Retail turnover has fallen, dragged down by regions in lockdown. This drag will persist as lockdowns drag on. The vaccine rollout is progressing well, which should signal the easing of lockdown stringency.
• Lockdowns have impacted trading restrictions and consumer mobility. This has caused a disruption to retail sales. Cafes, clothing, and department stores have taken the brunt of the impact, as they did in 2020.
• Online retail has soared, particularly for non-food sales. This is a result of increased lockdown stringency as the Delta variant leads to a sharp rise in cases.