India | Vaccine surge to energize consumption in 2022

We still think India’s recovery will be subdued in H2 2021, despite a significant pick-up in vaccinations from August. The uptick in inoculations is mostly first doses, and it will take time for second doses to be administered. As per our estimates, around 40% of the population will be fully vaccinated by end 2021.

What you will learn from this report:

• Based on the latest data, we have brought forward our timeline for 70% of the population to be fully vaccinated to Q1 2022, from Q2 earlier.
• This should provide a strong fillip to sentiment early next year and spur consumption.
• In the short-term, the relatively low proportion of the fully vaccinated will likely keep consumers cautious and constrain the recovery in services and manufacturing.
• Mounting supply-side disruption are also a drag on momentum.