Australia | Alternate recovery paths shaped by key risks

Vaccine programs across the world are well underway and should enable a sustained and meaningful easing of restrictions in late-2021 and early-2022. But as we have seen in Australia, vaccine rollouts have not been immune to supply disruptions and efficacy concerns, which are threatening to keep economies and international borders restricted for longer. Using our Global Economic Model, we consider three alternate recovery scenarios.
What you will learn:

• In the first scenario, new virus variants result in renewed restrictions. Lower vaccine efficacy against more transmissible forms of coronavirus lead to the retention of public health measures for a protracted period.
• In the second scenario, the recovery is delayed by consumer caution, vaccine hesitancy and a sluggish reduction in voluntary social distancing.
• In the final scenario, households rapidly unwind savings accumulated during the pandemic, fuelling a sharp consumer-led rebound in the economy.