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Research Briefing | May 27, 2024

South Africa: Elections 2024 | Scenarios side by side

This Research Briefing summarises our four scenarios for the general election that will take place in South Africa on May 29, and compares the macroeconomic forecasts associated with them.

What you will learn:

  • In the baseline scenario, ‘ANC & friends’, there is progress on SOE reform but power cuts remain a problem
  • In ‘ANC & EFF’, the government gives in to statist impulses and the relationship with the private sector becomes more adversarial
  • In ‘ANC & DA’, the government recognises the need to involve South Africa’s private sector and unlock investment
Tags: ANCEconomic GrowthElectionPoliticsSouth Africa Elections
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