Industry Forecast Highlights: The low point for global industrial growth is firming
Our conviction that 2023 was the low point for global industrial growth is firming. We expect that value-added industrial growth across the world will accelerate to 2.6% in 2024, up from 1.8% last year.
What you will learn:
- We see several factors pointing to an imminent but gradual recovery in Europe. We expect some permanent damage to competitiveness in energy-intensive industries, but in the short-run we do expect some catch-up growth as lower energy prices and a turn in the inventory cycle feed through.
- US industrial output growth is expected to be relatively steady. The results of the US election could however have significant implications for industry.
- Industry in Asia remains largely stable as well. The biggest change with respect to our previous forecast in the region is in Japan, where the Daihatsu scandal-induced production shutdowns in Q1 were deeper than expected.
- Across the world we expect the rebound in consumer and certain intermediate goods will outpace more interest-sensitive sectors like automotive, furniture, investment goods, and construction inputs like wood.
Tags:
Related Reports
Post
US-China relations improve, yet industrial recession remains likely
For the first time this year, our global industrial production outlook for 2025 has been upgraded. However, we still anticipate an industrial recession in Q2 and Q3.
Find Out More
Post
Identifying future manufacturing hot spots in Japan
Japan's industries, which are exposed more to international demand than to tepid domestic demand, are often concentrated in certain cities. This makes these cities more dynamic than others, a feature masked when only looking at national data. Understanding the industrial landscape helps identify growth opportunities across various sectors, as job creation and incomes drive spending.
Find Out More
Post
Tariff escalation to cause global industrial downturn
The significant escalation in US tariffs since early April is set to generate a shallow recession in global industry, though growth will remain positive in annual terms.
Find Out More