After the presidential debate, the US election remains a toss-up

Though Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of winning the election have improved since her debate with former President Donald Trump, we aren’t changing our subjective odds for the outcome of the 2024 presidential contest.

What you will learn:

• The presidential race is still a coin toss, with incoming polling data showing narrower margins in favor of the vice president in key battleground states. The polls are increasingly consistent with the results of our state-level presidential model.
• Polling trends at the congressional level are mixed for both parties. Democrats are in a prime position to retake the House, but Senate control seems to be slipping out of reach, with recent polls being more favorable for the Republican candidate in the pivotal Montana race.
• The Harris campaign released new details about her economic agenda. We updated the Harris scenario, incorporating the so-called billionaire minimum tax and an increase in the capital gains tax rate for high earners, which is smaller than the proposal by President Biden.

For more insights on the 2024 US Presidential Election, click here.