The Implications for US Travel Under a Second Trump Administration

Trump’s first term was marked by policies and pronouncements that strained international relations, including trade tariffs and a travel ban on selected countries. During this period, travel to the US experienced marginal growth, with an average increase of 1% over three pre-pandemic years and a loss of global market share.

In this research brief, we make the case for patience but recognize substantial downside risks to international travel. While the scope of policy changes remains uncertain and will likely fall short of campaign promises, experience shows travel markets are susceptible to policy and sentiment.

• Tariffs, restrictive immigration policies, and nationalist rhetoric may negatively impact inbound travel through direct travel restrictions as well as shifts in sentiment.
• Talk of mass deportations is likely overdone; instead, we anticipate a moderate step down in annual net immigration, resulting in fewer available staff.
• We anticipate a moderate boost to GDP growth in 2026 and 2027 due to expansionary fiscal policy, but the negative effects of tariffs and immigration reductions on the labor force will represent a long-term drag.