A Brighter Tomorrow: Oxford Economics and AEMO's Projections for Australia's Energy Market
Oxford Economics Australia (OEA) collaborated with the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) to develop economic and demographic scenario forecasts for AEMO's 2022-23 energy outlook reports. Using proprietary models, OEA ensured global and regional consistency in projections, aiding AEMO's decision-making. The final report included key scenario narratives and comparisons to public forecasts.
Project background
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) engaged Oxford Economics Australia (OEA) to develop economic and demographic scenario forecasts for their 2022-23 energy outlook reports. AEMO, responsible for Australia-wide planning and forecasting publications, required these forecasts as inputs into their modelling processes. The scenarios, outlined in AEMO’s Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report, were developed in collaboration with OEA.
Approach and solution
Using our proprietary global, industry, and state level macroeconomic models, we provided AEMO with consistent and reliable projections for the Step Change, Progressive Change, and Hydrogen Export scenarios. This model led approach allowed for the integration of global and regional variables such as commodity prices, trade, and state-level industrial composition mix, ensuring transparency and consistency in the forecasts
The final report outlined key scenario narratives and their underlying assumptions as well as comparisons of our population forecast to the Federal Treasury’s Centre for Population and their economic forecasts to other third party public forecasts. The collaboration between AEMO and OEA ensured global and regional consistency in the projections, thus enabling AEMO to make informed decisions for their energy outlook reports.
Conclusion
Oxford Economics Australia, using their proprietary models, provided AEMO with robust economic and demographic forecasts for their 2022-23 energy outlook reports. This solution ensured global and regional consistency, helping AEMO make more informed decisions. The collaboration resulted in a detailed report with projections for various scenarios.
