Russian invasion dents near-term UK growth outlook

The main impact on the UK economy of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to be energy prices staying higher for longer. The UK’s energy price cap means the pain for consumers will be delayed until October.

What you will learn:

• We plan a larger cut to our forecast for GDP growth in 2023
• The prospect of higher inflation will stoke the MPC’s fears that a wage-price spiral will develop
• But the additional squeeze on households also increases the risk of a more abrupt slowdown in activity