FOMC outlook: Prepping to Taper
Topic: The rapid spread of the Delta variant and lingering supply chain concerns have led to a visible softening in economic activity, visible in the soft August payroll report. We believe the FOMC will continue discussing QE tapering at its September policy meeting, but an announcement of its tapering plans is unlikely before the November policy meeting. We foresee actual tapering of asset purchases starting in December or January depending on employment and inflation progress over the fall. However, the challenge for Fed officials will be to separate the timing of tapering from eventual rate lift-off amid splintering views within the FOMC.
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Kathy Bostjancic | Chief US Financial Economist Kathy Bostjancic is Head of U.S. Macro Investor Services. She is responsible for assessing the impact of macroeconomic forecasts and analyses on the financial markets. She will present the economic outlook and market implications to U.S. asset managers and other clients, and she will be a media spokesperson. Kathy will also lead and collaborate on multiple consulting projects for U.S. clients. |
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Gregory Daco | Chief US Economist Gregory Daco is Head of US Macroeconomics at Oxford Economics. He is responsible for producing the US economic outlook using Oxford Economics’ proprietary Global Economic Model. Greg tracks and forecasts high-frequency indicators, and oversees the production of thematic research pieces on the US economy, the Federal Reserve, financial markets and fiscal policy. He is also responsible for presenting the global outlook to clients and partners, and liaising with the media. |
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