Assessing the risk of an inflation regime change
Inflation in advanced economies is set to rise this year to the highest rate in a decade. This has sparked fears of a shift to a high inflation regime which could feature inflation persistently above 5% and with very different dynamics. Such a shift would have profound consequences for economies and financial markets. In this webinar, we explore the risks of such an outcome, drawing lessons from past shifts in regime change.
While the evidence suggests a shift to a high inflation regime can’t be ruled out, for now we would only give it a probability of around 10% for the global economy, and a slightly higher 15% for the US.
We will be repeating the same webinar to cater for the difference in time zones between APAC, EMEA and the Americas:
- APAC – Wednesday 16th June | 10:00 HKT
- EMEA – Wednesday 16th June | 10:00 BST
- Americas – Wednesday 16th June | 16:00 EDT

Ben May
Director of Global Macroeconomic Research

Ben May
Director of Global Macroeconomic Research
Ben May | Director of Global Macroeconomic Research
Ben May is a Director of Global Macroeconomic Research at Oxford Economics and is involved in the production and presentation of the company’s global macroeconomic views, with a leading role in our coverage of the advanced economies. Ben joined Oxford Economics in April 2014. He has over 15 years’ experience as a macro economist in the public and private sector and has over a decade’s expertise covering the Eurozone economy. Before joining the Global Macro team, Ben worked on the Eurozone team at Oxford Economics. In addition to his working covering broad Eurozone issues he was also responsible for research on the ECB and Germany. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Ben spent over six years at Capital Economics and was responsible for the coverage of the southern Eurozone economies throughout the Eurozone crisis. Before that, he spent seven years at the Bank of England, working in three divisions of the Monetary Analysis area of the Bank, which provides research and analysis for the Monetary Policy Committee. Ben has a BSc in Economics with Statistics from the University of Bristol and an MSc in Economics from University College London.

Adam Slater
Lead Economist

Adam Slater
Lead Economist
Adam Slater | Lead Economist
Adam Slater is a senior economist at Oxford Economics, responsible for contributing to and helping to communicate Oxford Economics’ global macroeconomic view, including writing for and helping edit regular publications. He has a particular interest in developments in financial markets, and a specific forecast interest in the Japanese economy. He is also involved in Oxford Economics’ work on a variety of consultancy projects.
Before joining Oxford Economics, Adam spent more than ten years working as an economist and strategist in the City of London for Nomura, Rabobank, and Calyon. During this period, he was responsible for analysing a wide variety of economies in both the developing and the industrialised regions. He also covered financial market developments, including developments in currency and bond markets, and worked directly with traders and salespeople to elaborate strategies for use internally and for dissemination to customers. Adam gained a first-class degree in Economics from the University of Bath and also holds an MPhil from Cambridge University.
Related Services

Event
Market Signals You’re Missing: A New Way to Read CRE Sentiment
A moderated discussion between CRE Analyst and Oxford Economics, on the latest economic outlook and exploring a new approach to tracking CRE sentiment.
Find Out More
Event
Global travel outlook: navigating tariff-driven challenges in 2025
Global travel continues to grow despite challenges stemming from US tariffs but trends vary significantly when we consider impacts in North America vs the rest of the World. Join us as we discuss the latest trends in global travel, the implications of tariff-induced changes on the economic backdrop and ultimately on the travel outlook. Key challenges and opportunities will be reviewed as we enter the peak summer period, as well as a look ahead to 2026 and whether a clearer path is anticipated.
Find Out More