Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Mar 14, 2022

APAC commodity currencies lead the way amid Russia-Ukraine war

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was not priced in by markets and has led to spiralling commodity prices, higher risk premia, and strong demand for the USD. Asian foreign exchange (FX) markets have felt the combined impact of these developments.

What you will learn from this report:

  • Currencies of large Asian commodity exporters (AUD, NZD, MYR) have substantially outperformed those of importers (INR, KRW, THB). We see these trends spilling over into Q2.
  • Once market volatility subsides and the gentle weakening of the USD resumes, we expect the divergence to narrow and for most currencies to end the year stronger.
  • One exception is the CNY, where we project a modest depreciation in H2 this year given China’s policy divergence with the US and other countries as the authorities stick to accommodative macroeconomic policies to bolster growth.
Tags: APACASEANAsiaAsia PacificAsian EconomyAustraliaChinaCurrencyForecastsGDPGreater ChinaHong KongIndiaIndonesiaIndonesian RupiahInflation risksJapanMalaysiaNew ZealandPandemicPhilippinesRecoverySEASingaporeSouth East AsiaSupply chainThailandUS dollarVietnam
Share: Email | LinkedIn | Twitter
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Powering Growth: How Data Centres Are Reshaping APAC Economies

Powering Growth: How Data Centres Are Reshaping APAC Economies

At Oxford Economics, we help you surface and quantify those contributions, turning anecdotes into evidence. Our Economic Impact Consulting team builds defensible models that capture direct, indirect, and induced impacts, plus catalytic effects that are often missed, such as supplier development, skills formation, productivity gains, and infrastructure upgrades. We translate your operational data into board and regulator ready insights on jobs, GVA, incomes, and tax across construction and operations, at city, provincial, and national levels. We also run forward looking scenarios, including AI driven load growth, power and carbon forecast, and policy shifts, so you can credibly articulate both today’s impact and tomorrow’s trajectory. The result is a clear country level value story that strengthens stakeholder trust, supports siting and incentives, and helps you scale with confidence.
Shrinking supply delivery will support APAC CRE performance

Shrinking supply delivery will support APAC CRE performance

Commercial real estate development pipelines across Asia-Pacific are contracting structurally. Falling supply over the next two-three years is creating a window for operating fundamentals to improve.