Video|10 April 2025

Are GCC economies shielded from the latest US tariffs?

Are GCC economies shielded from the latest US tariffs?


The US’s new 10% import tariff is unlikely to cause major disruption for GCC countries. The region sends just 3% of exports to the US, and energy shipments are exempt. Although President Trump has delayed more severe reciprocal tariffs on the rest of the world for 90 days, these could still generate potential secondary impacts from weaker oil prices and inflation spillovers from the US via dollar pegs. Our initial estimates suggest a modest downgrade to the region’s near-term GDP outlook.

Brent crude dropped to $63 per barrel this week, its lowest since April 2021, as eight OPEC+ members unexpectedly announced larger supply increases for May. At the same time, Trump’s sweeping tariffs have raised fears of weaker global trade and demand, putting further downward pressure on prices. We now forecast oil prices to end the year at $63 per barrel.


Our latest videos

MENA in a Minute

MENA Chart of the Week

Relevant Content

Middle East Key Themes 2025: Ahead of the race

Middle East Key Themes 2025: Ahead of the race

We’re optimistic about GCC’s outlook for 2025 as oil production gradually increases, providing a boost to the region’s economies.
GCC: Key themes shaping city economies in the near term

GCC: Key themes shaping city economies in the near term

For Gulf cities, the near-term outlook will be tied not only to the global macroeconomic backdrop, but also the progress of the diverse visions and strategies in the region. With the aim to diversify their economies and reduce the dependence on oil, Gulf states continue to invest in the non-oil economy and implement various reforms. That said, oil revenues remain key to funding diversification efforts.
Iran-Israel tensions should dissipate after latest flare up

Iran-Israel tensions should dissipate after latest flare up

The military escalation between Iran and Israel has ratcheted up fears of an expanded Middle East conflict. The threat of counter strikes by Israel is clearly heightened, but we think both sides will ultimately seek to avoid a costly all-out war.

  • Share: