Determining the future demand,supply and skills gap for Australia’s and New Zealand’s rail workforce
Rail workforce capability study is to envisage the skills and capabilities that the
railways industry will need over the next 10 years
Determining the Future Demand, Supply and Skills Gap for Australia’s and New Zealand’s Rail Workforce: 2022-2032 – prepared by Oxford Economics Australia for the National Transport Commission and the Australasian Railway Association
Problem – Workforce capability gaps and retention risks in the road sector
Several regions are struggling to attract and retain skilled workers, with shortages in key roles threatening the ability to meet service goals. The Australia and New Zealand Roads Capability Analysis revealed growing skill shortages across the road infrastructure sector. While some areas face severe capability gaps, others are under pressure to maintain their current workforce amid competition from other industries. Shortfalls in specific technical roles further heighten the risk of underperformance in delivering infrastructure objectives.
Challenge – Rising labour demand driven by policy shifts and infrastructure priorities
New forecasts, especially in New Zealand, show accelerated demand for road sector workers that existing pipelines may not meet.The updated report highlights that New Zealand’s infrastructure agenda has significantly increased labour demand, particularly with the reintroduction of the Roads of National Significance program and expanded maintenance budgets. Labour demand is now expected to reach 7,200 workers by FY27, far exceeding earlier projections, and placing pressure on workforce development systems.
Solution – Strategic planning, education investment, and migration policies to close workforce gaps
A multi-pronged approach is needed to develop talent pipelines and support long-term capability across the sector. The report recommends boosting productivity, reducing attrition, promoting roads-related education, attracting talent from other sectors, and reviewing skilled migration policies. The updated analysis, based on FY23 as the new baseline, extends projections to FY33 and is supported by an interactive dashboard to help stakeholders track and respond to workforce trends effectively.
The experts behind the research
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Adrian HartHead of Construction & Infrastructure Consulting, OE Australia
Adrian has over 23 years of economic analysis and consulting experience with Oxford Economics Australia, focusing on the infrastructure, building, maintenance and mining industries. Adrian has undertaken a wide range of consultancy projects for the public and private sector based on his detailed understanding of construction, mining and maintenance markets, their drivers and outlooks, the range of organisations operating in this space and the issues they face.
This work includes deeper industry liaison, contractor and competitive analysis, pipeline analysis, demand and cost escalation forecasting, and industry capacity and capability projects for the public and private sector. He is the lead author of major reports but also undertakes briefings and workshops for senior management, board members and industry associations, leads in-depth stakeholder consultation, and facilitates and chairs roundtables between government and industry.
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