Eurozone | 2022 French deficit at least €40bn wider than budget

We estimate France’s fiscal deficit in 2022 will be around €40bn wider than projected by the government in its draft budget, at 6.3% of GDP versus the official 4.8% target. This is due to additional fiscal support measures, the cost of the France 2030 investment plan, and differences in baseline assumptions.

What you will learn:

• The additional fiscal easing will help smoothing the impact from the surge in energy prices.
• Our projection for public debt is higher than government estimates, with GDP peaking in 2024.
• However, the deficit gap could end up even wider in 2022, particularly if energy prices rise more than the government expects.