Eurozone | Industry offering some hope for a better year ahead

Strong industrial production numbers for November offer some hope that the worst is over, supporting our view of a gradual resolution of supply-side issues. Moreover, the strong gains in Spain and Italy could very likely result in some positive surprises for Q4 GDP.

What you will learn:

• But the bigger picture is of a slowing eurozone economy in Q1, with a series of downside risks to our call of pick-up from Q2.
• In particular, a big chunk of our forecast for 2022 continues to rest heavily on the shoulders of consumers and specifically on normalizing saving ratio.
• But the latter could be heavily affected by the evolution of the pandemic and behavioural shifts among consumers.