From Farm to Table: The Philippine Agri-Food Economy in 2025 and the Road to Competitiveness

Commissioned by ASEAN Food and Beverage Alliance (AFBA) and Food Industry Asia (FIA)

This report assesses the Philippines’ agri-food system, from agricultural production and food and beverage (F&B) manufacturing, to the wholesale, retail, and hospitality distribution networks that bring F&B to market.

Our latest research shows the scale and importance of the sector. Overall, the sector contributed USD 164.6 billion to the economy, around one-third of national GDP, and supported 18.8 million jobs, representing 38% of total employment.

But the operating environment is tightening. Climate risks, trade tensions, and US tariffs on Philippine agri-food exports are raising costs and uncertainty. Escalating tariffs could, in a worst-case scenario, leave global GDP 2.3% below baseline over five years, and volatility in global commodity prices could drive inflationary pressures in the net food-importing economy.

The study highlights a practical path to strengthen competitiveness and resilience. An open trade stance can redirect global supplies toward the Philippines and ease prices, while targeted investment in logistics and energy efficiency can lower input costs and lift productivity.

Over the long-term, delivering the Philippine Food Chain Logistics Masterplan 2023–2033 and advancing ease‑of‑doing‑business reforms will help businesses plan and invest with confidence. The prize is stronger food security, deeper integration into regional and global value chains, and more inclusive growth.

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The experts behind the research

Qi Yu Chan

Economist, Economic Consulting, Asia

Qi Yu Chan

Economist, Economic Consulting, Asia

Economist, Economic Consulting, Asia
Thang Nguyen-Quoc

Associate Director, Macro Consulting

Thang Nguyen-Quoc

Associate Director, Macro Consulting

Thang Nguyen-Quoc, Ph.D. leads Oxford Economics Asia’s Macro consulting team in Singapore. In this capacity, he supports clients with carrying out bespoke forecast and scenario modelling, as well as thought-leadership reports on trade and green transition. His core expertise is in policy analysis related to international trade and investment. His doctoral thesis evaluated the impacts of digitalization, protectionism and regionalism on the trade patterns of developing countries, using a range of econometric techniques.

Prior to joining OE in 2022, Thang spent a decade delivering flagship economic reports on Asian and African economies at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Paris. He also worked in various roles at the World Bank, National Academy of Social Sciences (US), and Vietnam Commercial Bank. He got a Ph.D. in International Economics from University Paris-Dauphine, M.Sc. from Barcelona School of Economics and B.A. from Ohio Wesleyan University.
Theng Theng Tan

Economist, Macro Consulting

Theng Theng Tan

Economist, Macro Consulting

Theng Theng Tan is an Economist with the Macro Consulting, Asia team. Prior to this, she was with the Macro Investor and Services team, where she covered Vietnam and provided macroeconomic analyses of country and broader regional trends. Before joining OE, Theng Theng was a public policy researcher with the Khazanah Research Institute, a think tank funded by the Malaysian sovereign wealth fund, Khazanah Nasional Berhad. Theng Theng holds an MSc Economic Policy degree with University College London.
James Lambert

Director of Economic Consulting, Asia

James Lambert

Director of Economic Consulting, Asia

James is the Director of Oxford Economics’ economic consulting services in Asia.

James moved to this role from Oxford Economics’ London office, where he headed up a team dedicated to exploring the economic impact of technology. He delivered high profile studies on the growth of the digital economy, the impact of automation and the implications for the labour market.

Prior to joining Oxford Economics, James spent over six years in the Government Economics Service. He worked in economics teams of the Cabinet Office, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the Department for Transport. There, he gained experience in microeconomic analysis and impact assessment as well as international macroeconomics, economic risk analysis and energy security. In the FCO, James spent three years working on economic issues in East and South East Asia. He also previously worked for the International Labour Organization.